Kind of breaks my brain

Started by FreeRoulette, Oct 01, 2024, 07:29 AM

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FreeRoulette

Lets make the assumption that picking 10 numbers will guarenteed hit in 100 spins.

So we look backwards through the number history removing numbers from the board until only 10 remain and we see that it took 60 spins.

So we select those 10 numbers, and 60 spins came up without hitting it, then it should hit within 40 spins, because we have a guaranteed hit in 100 spins based on billions of trials.

Here is where it gets funky. Had you picked those 10 numbers before the 60 spins, then at this point, you would hit within 40 spins. But because you looked back through the numbers, you kept moving the target around and those numbers had zero chance of hitting. Since they had zero chance of hitting, they don't count towards the 100 spins.

TwoUp

To hit ten chosen numbers on a 37 pocket wheel, the probability is:

10/37 × 9/37 × 8/37 × 7/37 × 6/37 × 5/37 × 4/37 × 3/37 × 2/37 × 1/37 =

The number of spins on average to hit all ten numbers can be calculated by flipping the probability of each outcome and adding them up, so you get:

37/10 + 37/9 + 37/8 + 37/7 + 37/6 + 37/5 + 37/4 + 37/3 + 37/2 + 37/1 = 108.37

So basically 109 spins on average to hit all ten chosen numbers at least once.

Not sure where you got your numbers and assumptions from however there is no guarantee of any outcome, there is always the probability that the wheel doesn't hit all of the numbers or it takes hundreds of spins to hit the last or last few missing numbers.





winkel

Take it easier:
Take the last 37 spins and selct the unhit
You will get a hit very soon