The sweet spot

[6th-sense]

no problem ..I,ll probably put it in the roulette software section for members to use...

[6th-sense]

I need speed of thought and flexibility to explore different ideas and angles.

maybe I can help you with this with some basic ideas if you like....just ask..I don,t usually do it but its basic stuff ...

[Martingale]

I have to think about it, thanks anyway for sharing this, even if it doesn't work.
Yes, with such a system, our losses will be small, but at the same time they will occur very often.
me need to test 100-200 games on paper, see how it goes.

[Martingale]

https://rouletteprofs.com/threads/topic-the-sweet-spot-roulettelife-forum.26/
What do you think about testing Amro? I think he has errors in calculations.

[TwoUp]

@Martingale Take a closer look at the suggestions for betting I detailed a few posts back. Really study it.

The entry trigger is that you must see 2 repeats in the 14 spins otherwise it means stand aside. You keep watching until you see 2 repeats in a 14 spin window. Given this is the mathematical expectation you don't need to wait very long at all.

At that point you start betting on spin 15. How many numbers certainly is the frontier to explore. I have proposed some things to investigate which may or may not turn out to be optimal.

I proposed starting on spin 15 betting 12+13+14. This is just a suggestion and I am encouraging anyone reading this topic to explore for yourself.

If you don't get a hit then that is a potential exit trigger. Also if you don't get a hit then your future profitability is also reduced, so it is a reasonable approach to stand aside when you don't meet or exceed the average early in the game, however you may elect to continue to the next waypoint at spin 19 (again I recommend exploring other exit points).

Your next bets on spin 18 and 19, are 14u,15u if you had one hit, or 15u,16u if you had no hit. If you had two hits then it's 13u,14u and for the trifecta of 3 hits it's 12u,13u.

At this point if you haven't had a hit by spin 19 then it's a very good exit trigger.

There are 4 spins remaining, so if you bet the next two spins then spin 21 is the last exit trigger. Maybe you had 1 hit but not 2 as expected so you decide to indulge two more spins to spin 21. Principle here is to keep the leash short but not too short.

At spin 21 there are only 2 spins left betting to spin 23 (as per Kramsky) and you can only get 2 hits. At this point your betting level would be two bets at 18u,18u if you had no hits and continued betting like a fool, which is not going to provide a good return or even make up for the losses, hence why the exit triggers make sense. Don't end up here with no hits and then complain your losses are high.

Spin 18-19 seems to be a reasonable go-no-go point and a mandatory exit trigger if you haven't had a hit (or two) and it gives some room for variance.

The other aspect to investigate to increase profitability (at some reduction in probability) is dropping numbers, which will require some in depth testing to determine what the sweet spot (if any) is.

When I posted the stats and profit estimate it is clear that the 7 and 8 repeaters are very dominant in the histogram (moreso than 6) and the profit skyrockets, easily eclipsing the losses on the low yielding games, even when we take away 2/3 of them!

The thing about the profitable hands is that on average they must be hitting through the 24 spin cycle, a rare few will be the last 5-6 spins and the point is who cares! as those are not as profitable games in any event as you would need to bet more numbers over more spins and in effect stick your neck way out to get there. So don't do that.

What I am trying to say here is that the triggers should be keeping you out of games where the hits don't come until late in the cycle. Sure you will have some quick losses abandoning games and miss out on some late bloomers but the gains on games with early repeats given the stats  should make up for it. I've discounted the wins by 2/3 and negates the profits on games for 6 repeats to make them losers and the overall profit seems to be carried by the 7 and 8 and 9 repeat games.

My gut tells me that provided you do get some early wins in the cylce it may be beneficial to expand the numbers bet to all that appeared since spin 1 rather than reducing, so potentially it's start with slightly fewer (eg 12) and either exit if no hits or expand based on the early repeats occuring. Again testing will validate the ideas.

Even just using the entry and exit triggers alone may be enough to ensure profitability betting all the numbers that have appeared. Testing will help to confirm what the best points are to cut losses. I would still not bet a number that has repeated twice given the stats show it's quite rare to see a 3rd repeat vs the outlay.

What we have is a probability distribution with the bulk of the weight in the higher repeat counts, which is why it's the sweet spot.

We also already know that 2,3,4 and 5 repeat games are few, 3-repeat (3.7%), 4-repeat (10.4%) 5-repeat (18.5%).  The bulk of the games are higher repeating 6-repeat (24%), 7-repeat (21%) and 8-repeat (13%).

All one has to do is ensure the average cost of the losing games is less than the average profit on the winning games. As we can see, when we get more than 6 repeats the profit skyrockets. We have 33.6% of games being losers (many we avoid altogether) and 65.7% are winners. Quite clearly our average per game loss can even be larger than average winning game profit and we still net a profit as we win 2/3 of the time and only lose 1/3 of the time.

But as I have shown the losing game losses are far less than the winning game profits, which is just what we want.

The other characteristic in our favour is that the high repeat count games mostly (but not all) have to have repeats occuring throughout the cycle, so the exit triggers should work reasonably well to cut losses on losers and marginal games. You only need to bet 4 spins from spin 15 to 19 and then you know absolutely if it is a high repeat (7 or above) game as there are not enough spins left barring an outlier. I would say betting to spin 17-18 is enough to call it a marginal play to continue if you didn't get a hit.

We need to elimate the losing games that we don't really know are losers and evict them for not paying rent on time, before it starts to cost too much. The entry trigger of 2 repeats by spin 14 keeps us out of most poor performing games and the exit triggers get us out of the games that fade on us. Sure we may evict some games that may have turned out good, but we can afford to throw away more than half of the winning games and still be profitable as per the chart I included previously.