TwoUp's 2-cycle cohort

[VLS]

Here is TwoUp's 2-cycle cohort system:


If you want high probability, record 2 cycles and identify the cohort of numbers that have not hit. There will be roughly 5 as the wheel both mathematically and statistically and physically cannot hit all numbers.

Yes it can theoretically happen that the wheel could hit all 37 pockets in 37 spins but there simply are not enough physical wheels, balls and fingers and minutes to have a chance of seeing a 1 in 766 trillion event (1 in 766,879,127,067,900).

You want to play a statistically strong game against the casinos statistical game which is based on 1 extra pocket, statistically it wins 1/37 because of that extra pocket. It makes a lot more around 24% (known as the hold) because of the variance (under funded bankrolls vs unit size and probability of success of the betting method) and through player grinding/turnover.

So after spin 74 (2 cycles) you have another 80 spins on average in order to see all 5 numbers resolve. While there will be some variance, the average all said and done is what matters, it will take 155 spins on average to resolve all 37 numbers and both the player and the casino must wait, just as the casino must wait to collect on zero or that extra pocket to hit that you're not betting on.

That means you have an expectation of being wrong 5 times to see those remaining numbers appear in the next 80 spins on average. 75 right vs 5 wrong.

If you consider the effect of those 5 missing numbers missing on your bets which will take 80 spins on average to resolve then you too can play a statistical game against the casinos statistical game. The casino has one extra pocket and you have 5 missing pockets...

The appearance of the numbers unfolds as per the attached table and this is a continuous process, with different numbers cycling in and out,  you will always have 1 missing number for 155 spins on average, 2 missing for 118 spins, 3 missing for 99 spins, 4 missing for 87 spins, 5 missing for 78 spins.  And you only need 70 spins to identify them.

You should always be continuously identifying what is missing in the last 70-80 spins so you always have 4-5 numbers that statistically will take an additional 80 spins to resolve on average.




System brought here with his permission.

TwoUp will be around with us soon!

[6th-sense]

I think two up needs to read this excellent thread...math doesn't perform as expected in roulette tbh..

https://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=4960.msg49609#msg49609

[6th-sense]

just copied and placed my old quote....two up did actually explain on another forum this process,,

he law of the thirds is a funny old thing..12 is only an average..I can't repeat that enough.....

every spin is the start of a 37 spin cycle and the end of a 37 spin cycle depending when you start look at pic attached..

hence stopping in plus and starting on last number won on .. those repeats go up in number and come down in number...cycling....same for unhits..and uniques..

I left the repeats out of this bet for a good reason in the 37 cycle frame..though the example can win on a unique becoming a repeat...but it also goes for wins on unhits too...

you have to know what you are dealing with and this basic example is for the first cycle and where numbers could appear or hit a unique directly related to this thread..

let me quote my past post here..

Feb 11, 07:34 AM 2019

Just need to do a quick explanation of the mechanics of roulette even though this thread is only about one cycle...

You will never get 37 unique numbers out ever that 1st cycle will have to have at least one unhit and one repeat

The mechanics of roulette is simple..

At spin 37 unhit and repeat will be equally the same

Every spin beyond will add a difference of one repeat to unhit

Ie spin 38 the repeats will be one higher than unhits

Ie spin 39 the repeats will be 2 higher than unhits

Ie spin 40 the repeats will be 3 higher than unhits and so on

Take any number say spin 74 the repeats will be 37 higher than unhit count

The repeats ALWAYS go up further in relationship to the 1st cycle finishing and the spin count you look at

Now if roulette was truly random this shouldn't be happening

This is the mechanics of roulette beyond 37 back to basics


this is why the repeats are left out

Feb 14, 05:27 AM 2019

Thanks herby in a side note the mechanics of roulette for the 1st 37 numbers out are the opposite ...unhits are the the greatest numbers out and will by definition be the same counting downwards the difference of the spin count rising to match the repeats on an even keel to the 37 spin end

[6th-sense]

nice to see you here two up...I can think of a few things I want to ask you and put your maths to it....

[TwoUp]

I think two up needs to read this excellent thread...math doesn't perform as expected in roulette tbh..

https://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=4960.msg49609#msg49609

I will take a look.

However I am fully aware that all probability is just an [infinite] long term average and all probabilistic events have variance defined by their probability, variance = npq and std deviation = √(npq).

I do make a point of saying "on average" several times in my post.

I also see the math of probability confirmed with statistics, hence why I find stats less relevant when dealing with events of known and controlled probability. I'm not a "wobbly wheel watcher" so forgive me for sidelining stats as less relevant than what probability describes directly.

That said, statistics do show that the averages provided by probability do hold so the average waiting time for appearances of numbers, repeaters and resolution of the missing cohort is a real phenomenon over a statistically significant sample.

Where using averages becomes potentially treacherous is methods of betting that depend on it absolutely holding in live play such trying to use progression. The variance can cut most of these approaches to ribbons.

However both the casino and player can each play their own statistical game where the averages do matter.

If instead you play into a statistical truth that actually holds then let the math do its thing over time.

That is all the casino is doing, it rides out the variance and the statistical truth of an extra pocket is realised "on average".

[VLS]

Welcome @TwoUp & thanks for sharing your ways in such a clear manner 👍

It's appreciated.

[TwoUp]

I have studied almost 12 million spins and the wheel behaves very predictably, the mean/average is just over 36 spins for a number to hit (basically the probability as we expect) and the standard deviation is ± 36 spins.

75% of numbers repeat within 50 spins. 87% of all numbers repeat within 74 spins (2 cycles)
96% of numbers repeat within 117 spins
99% of numbers repeat within 252 spins

The maximum outlier witnessed is 673 spins for a number to repeat.

There is always a missing cohort that you should not be betting on if you are playing a statistical game.

[winkel]

There is always a missing cohort that you should not be betting

There it is: The main and only problem with roulette.

[BlueAngel]

The maximum outlier witnessed is 673 spins for a number to repeat.

I've seen number 22 sleeping for 713 spins (testing), should anyone ever bet this number??!