Kimo Li's Hot number definition

Started by VLS, Jan 01, 2023, 08:43 PM

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VLS

This is an interesting and thought-provoking take on what a hot number is:

Quote from: Kimo LiA hot number is a number that influences the categorization of a set number of groups. Categorization may include the obvious characters, red, black, odd, even, high, low. So if your are tracking any of these characters, you may find a high variance in any one of these character groups. For example, 1 is red, odd, and low. The number may appear more that once in a 36 number cycle. More importantly, the number may add to the frequency of a tracked characteristic.
(Source)

Overlapping groups, cycles & hot numbers!


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BlueBuzzard

hmmm... it's not entirely clear to me what point Kimo Li is trying to make. But I think you need to distinguish between the cases where a group is hot because many different numbers in that group have hit recently and those where fewer unique numbers in the group have hit, but a greater number of times. I would argue that the first case is a better marker of a "hot" group.

In that same source thread I found a nice post by user "Joe", who has a simple but elegant way of classifying a hot number --

QuoteIf a number is showing above expected this doesn't take into account how long ago it hit, so supposing after 60 spins numbers 13 & 24 have both hit 3 times. According to expectation they are both equally hot, even though #13 may have had all its hits within the first 10 spins and #24 had all its hits within the last 10. The expectation calculation doesn't distinguish between them even though #24 is clearly "hotter" than #13 because it hit more recently.

I suggest a simple "rating" system which works by numbering the spins. It's easier to give an example rather than trying to explain how it works. So in this example there are 75 spins which are numbered :

1  1
2  15
3  12
4  17
5  32
6  13
7  2
8  11
9  24
10  9
11  4
12  15
13  1
14  11
15  14
16  32
17  2
18  19
19  28
20  31
21  33
22  33
23  15
24  3
25  14
26  36
27  6
28  16
29  15
30  24
31  32
32  32
33  22
34  3
35  21
36  31
37  10
38  9
39  1
40  32
41  12
42  28
43  10
44  29
45  30
46  35
47  24
48  12
49  29
50  36
51  34
52  2
53  36
54  30
55  1
56  31
57  11
58  10
59  29
60  29
61  6
62  35
63  3
64  17
65  6
66  5
67  22
68  32
69  33
70  29
71  6
72  11
73  29
74  34
75  17

So starting from #0, there are no hits so its "score" is 0. For #1,

it hit once on spin #1,
again on spin #13
again on spin #39
finally on spin #55

So add up these numbers and the score for #1 is 1 + 13 + 39 + 55 = 108

Do the same for the remaining numbers and then sort by score:

#    Score
-----------
0        0
7        0
8        0
18        0
20        0
23        0
25        0
26        0
27        0
13        6
4      11
19      18
16      28
21      35
14      40
9      48
28      61
15      66
5      66
2      76
24      86
12      92
30      99
22      100
1      108
35      108
31      112
33      112
3      121
34      125
36      129
10      138
17      143
11      151
32      192
6      224
29      355

So the hottest number is #29, the second hottest is #6, and so on up the list. This ranking system automatically takes care of where in the sequence the number hit; so in the case of where 2 numbers can be equally hot (as in my example earlier) with regards to pure expectation, this ranking system weights the more recent numbers more heavily.

winkel

Hi folks,

sometimes I think I lost the qualification for discussing strategies or classifications like mentioned above.

But there are no hot, cold, due or sleeping numbers.

I´m convinced that there is no way to predict any outcome, you just have to take what shows up. Anything else is guesswork and that´s the name of the game: "Guess what number might show up next"

I´m so sorry becoming a Nay-Sayer.
On the other hand I believe in a possible way to win in this game and I´m not talking about ballistics or stuff like that.






HardMan

True, it either is happening or not, taking advantage of what's currently going on; once the trend fizzles out those numbers don't matter without the essence, the spirit has left their dead body.

It either is blowing wind on not, sailing on the wind; yesterday doesn't matter long gone.

& you can use will forcing either, jamming in any direction you want with the power of the engine, as no player has control over that wheel spitting out spin outcomes.

BlueBuzzard

Quote from: winkel on Jan 01, 2023, 11:36 PMBut there are no hot, cold, due or sleeping numbers.

Winkel, if you mean that all outcomes are essentially unpredictable (unless using advanced AP methods) then I agree, but in a given framework it's possible to classify numbers as either hot or cold. But never "due", at least not in the sense of due in the next X spins. The question is: does your framework reflect reality?

I'm of the opinion that it's always a bad idea to chase cold numbers or locations, but when they're hot you're on safer ground. While it's true that mathematically outcomes are independent and all sequences of a fixed length are equally likely, which seems to preclude any accurate prediction, very often trends do continue for many spins. And there is always the possibility that they indicate some kind of bias (which is more common than you think, even on modern wheels). When I look back over my roulette career, my most spectacular wins have always occurred when following trends (and yes, the wins have outnumbered the losses). It takes patience and discipline, but the gold is there.

QuoteOn the other hand I believe in a possible way to win in this game and I´m not talking about ballistics or stuff like that.

Can you elaborate? I assume you're talking about pure money management.

winkel

Quote from: BlueBuzzard on Jan 02, 2023, 09:25 AMCan you elaborate? I assume you're talking about pure money management.

I´m thinking about a new thread on this in my area.

kimo li

Picture in your mind what kind of vehicle you drive.
In your everyday driving, how often do you see a vehicle like yours?

So, one of the number characteristics of roulette are low numbers 1 - 18.
Can you see low odd numbers in the example below provided by BlueBuzzard?


1  1
2  15
3  12
4  17
5  32
6  13
7  2
8  11
9  24
10  9
11  4
12  15
13  1
14  11

There is a total of nine low odd numbers in 14 spins.


Imagine there are countless vehicles.

Here we are only concerned with four "vehicles" to remember.

Low odd numbers
High odd numbers
Low even numbers
High even numbers

In the example, above we see Low odd numbers.

I just trained you to see the obvious.

Now, look for black numbers, yes there are 8 out the 14 spins.
Just another vehicle.


It is how one exploits the data that makes roulette beatable.




kimo li