Russian doll parachutes

Started by TwoUp, Jan 11, 2023, 01:59 AM

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TwoUp

This is an idea to absorb the so called "negative" variance on one game so it is mostly positive on another with a parachute style play acting as a variance shock absorber.

Play continuous parachutes so a hit on the deepest one is a hit on all of the higher ones, as the deeper parachutes are always inside the outer ones like Russian dolls.

The following betting plan covers a large set of numbers with a low draw-down and low hit rate required.

`Num. (Numbers covered)DD. (draw down)Spin 1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.  9.  10.Num. 18  48  78  108 138 168 198 228 258 288DD.  1  3  6  10  15  21  28  36  45  55    EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS  QD  QD  QD  ST  ST        EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS  QD  QD  QD  ST            EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS  QD  QD  QD                EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS  QD  QD                    EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS  QD                        EC  DZ  DZ  DS  DS                            EC  DZ  DZ  DS                                EC  DZ  DZ                                    EC  DZ                                        EC`
Bet using interleaved parachutes as shown. Bet the EC Hi/Lo in a non overlapping zone with the DZ so it covers 30 numbers. All bets in a parachute after the DZ are played and concentrated in the same DZ region like Russian dolls.

Bet 1u, any hit on the first two spins is a straight up win for a parachute.

The 3rd level is break even but it closes  two parachutes with one in profit. The break even bet on the second DZ may seem at first to be underwhelming but it is important for boosting probability.

Draw-down is modest. A failed parachute is just -10u.

The probability of 10 spins without a hit on any parachute is 1 in 6,271,642 as it is covering 18 numbers on the first spin and 30 numbers on 9 spins and the odds of the failure are calculated as 1 ÷ (19÷37 × (7÷37)^9).

You can take the parachute to 11 spins with another ST and the probability of not getting a hit becomes
1 in 33,150,109 calculated as 1 ÷ (19÷37 × (7÷37)^10).

Anytime we are in the 1 in millions of not getting a hit the variance will be very low, but it does not mean parachutes will not fail. We accept these losses but we do have a trick for minimizing the probability of failed parachutes.

The following rules are used which facilitate recovery.

Once beyond the 3rd spin any win is used to hoist up the deepest parachute and if it is a direct hit in the DZ zone, it closes out the parachute and any "above" it and those closed game profits are used to hoist up the remaining deepest parachutes as many levels as possible.

It is best to concentrate bets in the same zone. This means the DZ contains the DS which contains Q and ST bets. Doing this closes many deep parachutes in a single hit.

You can follow the wheel as you see fit also to capitalize on streaks and clumping which are features in random outcomes.

Any hit, even a hit on an EC is used to hoist up the very deepest parachute(s).

The draw-down is quite low and the probability of an individual parachute to win is 90.14% (90.94 with 11 spins) but it improves with hoisting, as any hit on 30 numbers lifts the deepest parachute giving it extra spins to resolve.

If you do manage to get a particularly bad run then one can use a very mild progression as they see fit such as +1 +2, +3 as failing to get a hit in 11 spins is 1 in 33 million event and getting this back to back repeatedly becomes a probabilistic absurdity.

The profit and loss curve is quite smooth with this play due to absorption of variance over 20/22 spins (the first parachute fails no earlier spin 10/11 and the 10th parachute fails no earlier than spin 20/22). It is practically "impossible" to not have any hits (1 in 1,098,929,741,419,000) that's a 1 in 1.1 quadrillion event. Even with impossibly extreme events the unit loss is still very mild, 20 spins would be 55×2 or 66×2 for the 11 spin parachute.

Wally Gator

Quote from: TwoUp on Jan 11, 2023, 01:59 AMDrawdown is modest. A failed parachute is just -10u.

How are you calculating this?  An example would be helpful.  Thanks so much.

BlueBuzzard

I'd like to see an example too, not sure how it's actually played.

Wally Gator

@TwoUp

Any chance you are willing to provide an example?