Roulette Ideas

I have been so focused on repeats after 7 unique numbers, or trying to take advantage of the law of the third where 24 numbers come up out of 35, that something just occurred to me.

Do a random test of 35 spins. How many repeat twice?

I think it would be much cheaper to bet just the numbers that repeated one time, in order to catch a double repeat.

Has anyone tested it idea? I'll make a system to try it out when I get more time.

read this: https://rouletteideas.com/winkel/lott-myth-buster-we-have-always-24-numbers-hit-in-a-rotation/ 

this idea is hellbound

Quote from: winkel on Oct 09, 2023, 08:45 PMread this: https://rouletteideas.com/winkel/lott-myth-buster-we-have-always-24-numbers-hit-in-a-rotation/ 

this idea is hellbound

That shows exactly on average 24 numbers hit. So on average, there are 13 repeats, and I bet that the average triple repeat is higher than zero. I haven't tested it though.

Tested 1 million trials. A trial is a set of 35 spins. I wanted to know how many trials had triples and how many triples were there.

This is the result showing that 28% of the time, 3 triples happen in 35 spins. Also note, that less than 4% of the time no triple shows up.

0 triple happened 36126 times (3.61%).
1 triple happened 178258 times (17.83%).
2 triple happened 324891 times (32.49%).
3 triple happened 286649 times (28.66%).
4 triple happened 134345 times (13.43%).
5 triple happened 34608 times (3.46%).
6 triple happened 4765 times (0.48%).
7 triple happened 349 times (0.03%).
8 triple happened 9 times (0.00%).

Python code if anyone wants to play around

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

number_of_spins = 35
trials = 1000000
total = np.zeros(number_of_spins)

for x in range(0, trials):
    spins = np.random.randint(1, 39, number_of_spins)

    # count doubles, triples etc
    unique_elements, counts = np.unique(spins, return_counts=True)

    # get elements that had 3 or more repeats
    result = unique_elements[counts >= 3]

    # Count the number of elements
    total[len(result)] += 1


for index, value in enumerate(total):
    if value > 0:
        percentage = (value / trials) * 100
        print(f"{index} triple happened {int(round(value))} times ({percentage:.2f}%).")

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The next post will be an analysis of the duplicates to see what kind of bankroll would be needed to bet the duplicates on a realistic table limit of $5 min inside bet.

Betting window for the first 3hit due to binomial distribution

Thank you Winkel,

Is that the number of spins until the first triple hit?

I would also like to know the distribution from the first repeat to the first triple hit, how many spins.

It would also be helpful to know how many duplicates.

What I eventually want to say is something like. Wait until x duplicates, start betting on duplicates, expect to hit in x spins, and the bankroll needed is around x.   

I would also like to identify conditions that are not good. For example if there are 4 duplicates before spin 15, maybe there is less of a chance to get triple.

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 10, 2023, 04:56 PMThank you Winkel,

Is that the number of spins until the first triple hit?
 

The first 3hit might appear if the binomial count is 0,5 or higher
This at spin 19

There should/could be 11,6 onehit and 2,9 2hit

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 10, 2023, 04:56 PMThank you Winkel,

I would also like to know the distribution from the first repeat to the first triple hit, how many spins.


What I eventually want to say is something like. Wait until x duplicates, start betting on duplicates, expect to hit in x spins, and the bankroll needed is around x.   

The first 2hit with count 0,5 or higher is at spin 7
The first 3hit with count 0,5 or higher is at spin 19

The betting window is from count 0,5 until count 1,5.
There should be already a 2nd 3 hit.

If not your on a 3hit-sleeping-range

Skip all stats if a 3hit is earlier than spin 19 and restart.
Stop betting at count 1,5 at spin 29 (after 10 spins.

Your bankroll is due to the number of 2hits adding all new during 10 spins.

You can answer all your questions by the stats above.

But playing with LotT is bluffing the devil

Can you explain the chart so I can answer the questions.

For example:
Spin 9, what does F1 7,20 mean?

F more than 2 is 0,05?

It sounded good on the outside, but the trials were a bomb. Took too much bankroll to cover the numbers for enough spins.

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 11, 2023, 03:06 AMIt sounded good on the outside, but the trials were a bomb. Took too much bankroll to cover the numbers for enough spins.

did you try to bet only the window?

Quote from: winkel on Oct 12, 2023, 09:24 AM

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 11, 2023, 03:06 AMIt sounded good on the outside, but the trials were a bomb. Took too much bankroll to cover the numbers for enough spins.

did you try to bet only the window?

I tried betting from the first repeat, and waiting for x amount of repeats.

If I wait for certain conditions like 5 repeats, then it reduces the set of trials. You end up waiting a long time for the condition and miss opportunities for a win. Even if you wait, the bankroll needed to make it to win can exceed $1000.

I will post a full printout that shows the bets until a win regardless of limits.

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 12, 2023, 08:36 PMI tried betting from the first repeat, and waiting for x amount of repeats.

If I wait for certain conditions like 5 repeats, then it reduces the set of trials. You end up waiting a long time for the condition and miss opportunities for a win. Even if you wait, the bankroll needed to make it to win can exceed $1000.

I will post a full printout that shows the bets until a win regardless of limits.

I tried betting from the first repeat, and waiting for x amount of repeats.

That´s a common mistake with people betting the LotT.
If you are going for the "most" events you can´t start to bet where you want.

If I wait for certain conditions like 5 repeats, then it reduces the set of trials.

The second common mistake: The need to bet every spin (even after a first trigger) and obviously the greed.
Of course you will miss early wins, but you don´t run into losing streaks that often! Is that so complicated to understand?

Betting on 2hit numbers to catch the first 3hit is the same as betting every hit number to hit the first 2hit. This is tested millions of spins and is proofed a losing game.

If you don´t have the patience and the time to wait for a high probability situation, then don´t play roulette on the LotT

Quote from: winkel on Oct 12, 2023, 09:12 PM

Quote from: FreeRoulette on Oct 12, 2023, 08:36 PMI tried betting from the first repeat, and waiting for x amount of repeats.

If I wait for certain conditions like 5 repeats, then it reduces the set of trials. You end up waiting a long time for the condition and miss opportunities for a win. Even if you wait, the bankroll needed to make it to win can exceed $1000.

I will post a full printout that shows the bets until a win regardless of limits.

If you don´t have the patience and the time to wait for a high probability situation, then don´t play roulette on the LotT

That said, what is an example of a high probability situation?