Roulette Ideas

Quote from: AlbalahaWe do not need to beat the extreme, we just need to surpass that with least harm possible. Whatever way we can play, randomness can beat that momentarily. It is always better to be prepared for that instead of dreaming of beating that too. Extreme cases are rare too and if they do not take away too much money, why keep bothering about them?

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100% agree with this.

That's essential, to keep the game in control.

Quote from: VLS on Jan 15, 2023, 09:58 PMWe do not need to beat the extreme, we just need to surpass that with least harm possible

I disagree..

you can't surpass it without knowing what it is....until you know that you don't know what kind of harm you could potentially walk into...and damage inflicted...

I like to understand the reliability factor of a betting method first. Keeping in mind there is no absolute limit, everything has a probability attached if it may be infintesimal.

My gold standard is 9 nines of reliability, such that it takes a 1 in 1 billion event to result in total session loss. A near miss may still cause significant damage to a session bankroll, but I use the nine nines benchmark as a comparative measure.

Yes it requires computing accurate probabiliry for success (or loss), and if one can't do that then they are being rather foolish.

If the cost to achieve a 1 in a billion reliability is too high vs the session profitability (again I use a rule of thumb that on average it should take less than  5 sessions profit to replace a session bankroll) then it's a good indication that it is a high risk method with insufficient gain and should be relegated to the trash vs other plays that can achieve this.

Me loves the quantiles...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile

Past your cut point, either stop betting current OR switch to another of the monitored layouts that's currently favorable (always going for continuation).

Concatenation of losses should always see a return of your bets to minimal units, that's where a cycle-based framework shines: you can identify things quite clearly: every negative tram starts with two missed cycles = return to min.

Concatenation of wins = raise consciously, it is "your time" (or the time for your current scheme to positively add to the average :) go for it with no stop win!).

The extremes become: Minimal losses + Maximum wins.

Reinvesting % locks profits.

Quote from: VLS on Jan 15, 2023, 09:58 PM

Quote from: AlbalahaWe do not need to beat the extreme, we just need to surpass that with least harm possible.

To me this simply means that the least cost is incurred as invested to create profit.

Longer intervals of no-hit spins are met sooner than later, so traversing them with the lowest exposition generated is essential.

Once you get a hit, the game actually starts, & with the best starting point within the worst condition.

The least exposition generated, whatever condition, the shortest intervals of in-favor variance following that is required to recover the cost.

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If you raise the unit(s) unnecessarily, you might benefit in the shorter & medium of such unfavorable intervals, but as soon as the extremes are meet all such systems quickly die.

Why?

Because of the ripple effect.

Every unit added unnecessarily, in time gets bigger, amassing more matter to the undo backwards. Like a snowball.

Add 1u quicker, & the next block of spins will have to compensate for all that back, & then each another layer so. The quicker & more layers you add, the bigger the ball gets sooner .. & at one point you'd just meet the table limit &or need too many hits to recover/undo & finish.

For that's what we are actually doing .. undoing.

Undoing the self-created debt to finish in positive.

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Or as my main precept:

The minimized volatility requires the shortest intervals of favorable variance to win.

Trying to beat even the extremes always laid to foolish ideas like martingale, labouchere etc. They can theoretically and even mathematically can beat any event finally but with countless infinite chips and no table limits. I saw a very big debate over a progression called "HP Johnson" which was a mix of flat betting, labouchere and finally an ultra harsh martingale. At lucky sessions, it looks the most prudent way to play but in the long run, it will kill the player, for sure.
          Ironically, people do not want to get over these classic failure ideas which I suspect were promoted or propagated by casino industry itself. Win least possible and lose max possible.
            One of my friends from Singapore got so much obsessed with HP Johnson progression that he kind of considered it a panacea. Poor fellow could not comprehend it due to not having skill to simulate any idea.
       We can not guess the extent to which a super harsh session may last but can still have some parameters to check them and not lose back.
           I will try to compile my ideas on the extreme variance management soon.

Quote from: Albalaha on Jan 17, 2023, 06:51 AMTrying to beat even the extremes

I didn,t say beat the extremes..you just need to know them...

Quote from: Albalaha on Jan 17, 2023, 06:51 AMI will try to compile my ideas on the extreme variance management soon.

is this not the same?  you need to know extreme variance?

look forward to it..