Hi, other EC system based on DS and derivate , use Levels/progression.
Quite constant wins, 3Ws Vs L3
Hello & welcome again!
Thanks for sharing your system/method with us 👍
Much appreciated 🤗
When you say quite constant .. what the certainty of a single-instance run to positive.
Eg. 1 in 400 games terminated at a certain predetermined exposition-point is 0.9975.
What's the session-bankroll, & thereof what's the session-certainty?
Eg. single-instance^X, where X= however many consecutive single-instances are required to be won.
Hi, English is not my first and math also is not. I explain in My own way:
I use 3 mini bankrolls, each 200 units. Target per session around 70 units, session can be 100 spins but also can be 300 spins, until win the 70 or lost 200 units, so out if -200 or + 70 ( or close).
Never lost 3 bankrolls in row, not even two. In 40 sessions lost 4 and win 36 .
Using the levels as positive progression can recover fast, also can go down if very Bad run. But the 3 Ws are constant enough, at least until now.
It s not the only system I play.
In 40-sessions, how many games till positive have you played, in total?
System terminated 4-times.
So you would calculate the certainty as 1 - (4/that total).
To get the session certainty .. you would put the power on that system-certainty.
If you make on average +1/games, with a session goal of 70u, you would have to play 70 games won consecutively.
Let'say your system-certainty is 0.9975 (1 in 400 terminated, on average) & 70 games:
0.9975^70= 0.839273103 ... or 83.93% chance of succeeding.
The average units made per game is most likely not exactly +1.
Let's say is 1.5 units/game.
To get to +70 session-goal, you would then have to play about a third fewer games on average to complete.
70/1.5= 46.6666666667 ≈ 47 games.
The session-certainty is the system-certainty on the power of 47.
0.9975^47= 0.889009711 ..... 89.9%.
& given the bankroll is 200u ... you would have to win 3 sessions in a row, best case-scenario.
0.9975^(47x3)= 0.9975^141 = 0.702618393
70.26% chance of that happening.
Let's take it a step further.
Based on +70 & 1.5u/game= 0.889009711 session-certainty (second posts above).
That's a probability synonymous to a probability of a hit on the first spin playing 32.89 numbers.
Punch that number in https://www.rouletteman.com/probability-calculator/.
You get the gauge on how many bankrolls you'd need meeting a bit more extreme scenario, covering for 2-nines of certainty.
(https://i.ibb.co/XxLRh8j/I-Markup-20240820-003234.jpg) (https://ibb.co/23h4DNW)
At the edge of 4 onto 5-nines of certainty is 5-sigma.
6-nines of certainty is 6-sigma.
Sever-hosting & production-companies strive to achieve that level of performance (6) .. so called production perfection.
2.56e-7 = 0.000000256
1-0.000000256= 0.999999744 = 99.9999744%
That's 4-nines of certainty ... or 5-sigma.
A system that can manage 5..6-sigma is pretty much unbeatable.